Maliszewska, Mattoo and van der Mensbrugghe (2020), have found that in the global pandemic scenario, if the world’s GDP falls by 2% below the baseline, developing countries would see their GDP fall by 2.5%, and industrial countries by 1.8%. In the amplified pandemic scenario, the declines would be double in comparison. Under the amplified global pandemic scenario, global GDP decline would reach 3.9%, with the regions most integrated through trade and/or where tourism trade plays a big role in the economy facing the biggest GDP losses.
Supply Side Impacts
Demand Side Impacts
Maliszewska, M., Mattoo, A. & van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2020). The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade: A Preliminary Assessment, World Bank Policy Research Working paper, No. 9211
WTO (2020) Simulating Some Potential Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Scenario Analysis Based on Quantitative Trade Modelling
McKibbin, W. & Fernando, R. (2020). The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios, COVID Economics, Issue 10, 27 April 2020, CEPR Press
Calderon, Cesar; Kambou, Gerard; Zebaze Djiofack, Calvin; Korman, Vijdan; Kubota, Megumi; Cantu Canales, Catalina. 2020. Africa’s Pulse, No. 21 (April), World Bank, Washington, DC
 Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando (2020): The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios, COVID Economics, Issue 10, 27 April 2020, CEPR Press
 Richard Baldwin and Rebecca Freeman: Supply chain contagion waves: Thinking ahead on manufacturing ‘contagion and reinfection’ from the COVID concussion, 1 April 2020, found at https://voxeu.org/article/covid-concussion-and-supply-chain-contagion-waves
 Alvaro Espitia, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta: Trade in Critical COVID-19 Products, World Bank Trade and COVID-19 Guidance Note, 27 March 2020
 Boissay et. al. mentioned above
 Maryla Maliszewska, Aaditya Mattoo and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (2020): The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade: A Preliminary Assessment, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n° 9211
 Òscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh and Alan M. Taylor: Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics, Covid Economics, Issue 1, 3 April 2020
 Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando (2020)
 This includes three components: mortality due to infection, morbidity due to infection and morbidity arising from caregiving for affected family members (absenteeism from work due to caregiving family members who are infected).
 Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Other Asia, Other oil producing countries, Republic of Korea, Rest of Euro Zone, Rest of OECD, Rest of the World, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America
 The non-African groups considered include China, the EU 27, the United States, other OECD countries, and the rest of the world.